Key Figures & Composition
- As of March 31, 2025, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦149.39 trillion (≈ US$97.24 billion). Nairametrics+3Debt Management Office Nigeria+3Nairametrics+3
- That represents a year-on-year increase of ₦27.72 trillion (≈22.8 %) compared to Q1 2024. Nairametrics+2Nairametrics+2
- In terms of debt composition:
- Domestic debt: ₦78.76 trillion (≈ 52.72 % of total) Debt Management Office Nigeria+2Debt Management Office Nigeria+2
- External debt: ₦70.63 trillion (~ 47.28 %) Ecofin Agency+2Debt Management Office Nigeria+2
- Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio (public gross debt) is projected around 52.0 % (IMF estimate) for 2025. IMF+1
- A significant portion of the debt (in past reporting) has been denominated in foreign currency (FX-denominated debt), increasing exposure to exchange rate risk. IMF
Trends, Risks & Pressure Points
📈 Rapid Growth
Debt has been on a steep trajectory in recent years, propelled by fiscal deficits, borrowing to fund infrastructure and subsidies, and currency depreciation. Nairametrics+4The Budgit Foundation+4Debt Management Office Nigeria+4
💸 Servicing Costs & Revenue Stress
- A large chunk of government revenue must go into interest payments and debt service, leaving less flexibility for development, infrastructure, or social programs. IMF
- Because much of the external debt is in foreign currencies, naira depreciation increases the local cost of servicing those obligations.
📉 Fiscal Deficits & Growth Gaps
- Nigeria continues to run fiscal deficits, which forces further borrowing to cover current expenditures. IMF
- If economic growth lags, and revenues underperform (especially non-oil revenues), sustainability becomes more precarious.
🔄 Exchange Rate Risk & External Shocks
- External debt exposure means that fluctuations in the naira can magnify debt burdens.
- Global shocks (commodity prices, interest rate changes, capital flows) could exacerbate Nigeria’s debt vulnerability.
What This Means + Outlook
- The debt burden is becoming a major fiscal drag. Even though debt-to-GDP has some wiggle room (52 %), the quality and cost of debt matter more than just the ratio.
- Debt sustainability will hinge on how well Nigeria can grow, raise non-oil revenues, manage exchange rates, and control borrowing costs.
- For 2025 and beyond, the government must prioritize reforms that reduce reliance on debt—structural revenue reforms, subsidy rationalization, and prudent borrowing strategies will be key.